Who is the AFC North favorite if not the Steelers, Ravens, Browns, or Bengals?

The AFC North has long been a battleground dominated by the Ravens, Steelers, Browns, and Bengals, but what if none of these teams emerge as the favorite? With injuries and inconsistent performances plaguing the division, the race feels more unpredictable than ever.

The Ravens remain betting favorites despite a rocky 1-4 start, while the Steelers face an uphill climb after their bye week. Meanwhile, the Bengals and Browns struggle to find consistency, leaving the door open for unexpected twists.

Who’s the Dark Horse in the AFC North If the Big Four Stumble?

The AFC North has long been dominated by the Steelers, Ravens, Browns, and Bengals, but 2025’s turbulent season raises questions about potential underdogs. While Pittsburgh currently leads at 3-1, injuries and inconsistent performances across the division leave room for speculation. The Ravens’ 1-3 record with Lamar Jackson’s health concerns and Cincinnati’s shocking 28-3 loss to Denver suggest conventional wisdom might not apply this year.

Historically, the last team outside these four to win the division was the 1989 Cleveland Browns – before their relocation and rebirth. Current roster constructions across the league don’t immediately suggest a usurper, but the NFL’s parity means surprises happen. The division’s physical style of play often leads to unexpected attrition, opening doors for resilient squads.

Look at the Titans in 2002 or the Chargers in 2008 – teams that emerged from nowhere when traditional powers faltered. The AFC North’s brutality might create similar opportunities this season.

But Coach, who even has the roster to step up? The other AFC teams either lack toughness or offensive firepower to survive this division grind.

Why Are the Ravens Still Betting Favorites Despite Their 1-4 Record?

Sportsbooks continue listing Baltimore as AFC North favorites despite their dreadful start, creating confusion among analysts and fans. This apparent contradiction stems from three factors: Lamar Jackson’s potential return, historical second-half surges under John Harbaugh, and the team’s proven roster construction when healthy.

The Ravens’ 1-4 record masks several close losses where key absences proved decisive. Their point differential (-23) compares favorably to Cleveland’s (-31) despite having one more loss. Advanced metrics suggest Baltimore’s performance exceeds their win total, with ESPN’s FPI still ranking them as a top-12 team leaguewide.

The Injury Equation

Baltimore’s training room resembles a MASH unit, with DT Nnamdi Madubuike (neck) lost for the season and Jackson missing two starts. Their offensive line has started five different configurations already. Yet betting markets anticipate normalizing health and regression to the mean – Baltimore’s 2024 season saw them go 8-2 after a 3-5 start.

Remember 2012 when the Ravens fired their OC midseason and won the Super Bowl? This organization has institutional knowledge for turning disasters into triumphs.

But shouldn’t the Steelers’ 3-1 record count for more? They’ve already beaten two division rivals and have Mike Tomlin’s track record of avoiding losing seasons.

How Much Trouble Are the Browns Really In at 1-3?

Cleveland’s sluggish start raises existential questions about their contention window. Their offense ranks 28th in yards per play (4.9) despite significant investment, while the defense surrendered 30+ points in three straight games before Week 5. The Deshaun Watson contract looks increasingly burdensome as his QBR (35.1) sits near the league’s basement.

Historical context amplifies concerns – since 2020, teams starting 1-3 make playoffs just 12% of time. Cleveland’s remaining schedule features five current division leaders, including matchups against Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. Their -31 point differential trails only Carolina and Arizona leaguewide.

Silver Linings for Cleveland

• Myles Garrett remains dominant with 5.5 sacks through four games
• Rookie WR Jamarion Pierce averages 17.3 yards/catch
• Upcoming schedule softens after Week 7

The Browns’ best hope parallels Baltimore’s – health improvements and division cannibalism. If Pittsburgh stumbles and Watson rediscovers Houston form, they could rally.

That’s two massive “ifs” though. Their offensive line looks broken, and defensive collapses suggest deeper schematic issues.

Could AFC North Chaos Benefit an Unexpected Team Like the Titans?

While no non-North team has won the division since the 2002 realignment, 2025’s perfect storm of circumstances makes the unthinkable plausible. The Titans possess several traits suited for AFC North conquests: physical run game, aggressive defense, and veteran leadership.

Tennessee benefits from playing the NFC West and AFC South – both divisions with multiple struggling teams. Their Week 16-17 road swing through Pittsburgh and Baltimore could become de facto division deciders if chaos prevails. The Titans defense already shut down two top-10 offenses (Dolphins, Packers) this season.

Mike Vrabel thrived in this division as a player. His teams consistently overachieve, and Derrick Henry’s style fits AFC North winter football perfectly.

But doesn’t their 2-3 record and Will Levis’ inconsistency make this fantasy football? The schedule helps, but overtaking four teams seems delusional.

What Would It Take for the Broncos to Sneak Into AFC North Contention?

Denver’s stunning 28-3 dismantling of Cincinnati showcased their dark-horse potential. Sean Payton has quietly rebuilt the Broncos into a physical, disciplined squad reminiscent of his best Saints teams. Their defense allows just 17.8 PPG (4th best) while the offense finally shows rhythm under Bo Nix.

The path requires near-perfect execution: win remaining North matchups (vs PIT, at CLE), benefit from intra-division carnage, and maintain defensive dominance. Denver’s remaining schedule ranks as the NFL’s easiest per ESPN metrics, with only two opponents currently above .500. Historical precedents exist – the 2008 Chargers won the AFC West at 8-8 by navigating similar chaos.

Key Factors for Denver

• Bo Nix maintaining 68% completion rate
• Maintaining NFL-best red zone defense (33% TD rate)
• Sweeping remaining games vs Bears, Panthers, Patriots

Payton won games with worse rosters in New Orleans. The Broncos control their destiny more than people realize.

But the division tiebreakers seem impossible. Even at 10-7, they’d likely lose multi-team tiebreakers to North rivals.

Is Mike Tomlin’s Streak of Non-Losing Seasons in Serious Jeopardy?

Despite leading the division at 3-1, Pittsburgh faces legitimate concerns about sustainability. Their offense ranks 27th in yards per drive (27.1) and 29th in red zone efficiency (42.9%). The defense, while stellar (2nd in takeaways), relies heavily on splash plays masking vulnerable run defense (4.7 YPC allowed).

Tomlin’s streak of 17 straight non-losing seasons faces its sternest test yet. Upcoming games against Dallas, Philadelphia, and Kansas City could expose pretender status. Since 2020, teams with Pittsburgh’s offensive profile (bottom-10 in both yards and points) make playoffs just 9% of the time. Their +12 point differential suggests regression may loom.

Tomlin’s teams always find ways. But this might be the year the music stops unless Kenny Pickett takes a monumental leap.

Their 3-1 record feels fraudulent after watching the film. The Vikings loss showed how easily good teams can dismantle them.