Figma Stock IPO Price: What’s Next After $20B Valuation? Will Shares Keep Rising or Face Early Volatility?

Figma’s highly anticipated IPO has set the tech world buzzing with its $20 billion valuation and $1.2 billion raise, pricing shares above the initial range. The design platform’s debut marks one of the largest tech offerings of 2025, drawing comparisons to recent IPOs like CoreWeave and Circle.

Investors now face a critical question: Can Figma sustain its early momentum or will market volatility test its premium valuation? With oversubscribed demand signaling strong confidence, all eyes are on whether Figma’s collaborative software leadership can justify its lofty price.

Figma Stock IPO Price: Why Did They Raise It to $32 Per Share?

Figma recently increased its IPO price range to $30–$32 per share, targeting an $18.8 billion valuation. This adjustment reflects strong institutional demand during the roadshow, with the offering being oversubscribed by 3x according to underwriters. The company allocated 24.6 million shares in the primary offering, with an additional 5.5 million available via greenshoe option.

The pricing strategy appears conservative compared to Figma’s last private valuation of $20 billion, possibly to ensure a successful debut. SaaS companies typically trade at 15-20x ARR in public markets, and Figma’s revised valuation places it at approximately 18x its 2024 revenue of $1.04 billion.

Notice how they’re leaving room for a first-day pop? The $32 price gives institutional investors confidence they won’t overpay while still allowing for 15-20% upside on opening day.

But Mr. Lettuce, if demand is so strong, why not price higher? Won’t they leave money on the table?

Secondary Offerings and Lockup Expiration

Existing shareholders are selling 24.6 million shares in the IPO (40% of total offering), which could create near-term selling pressure. The lockup period expires 180 days post-IPO, with early investors like Index Ventures and Greylock holding ~30% of shares. Historical data shows SaaS IPOs typically see 12% volatility in the first 90 days.

Is Figma Stock Overvalued at $18.8B? Here’s the Real Math

At its $18.8 billion fully diluted valuation, Figma trades at:

• 18x 2024 revenue ($1.04B)
• 56x 2024 operating profit ($335M)
• 120x 2024 net income ($156M)

Comparable metrics:

This isn’t just about current numbers – the market’s paying for Figma’s 38% annual revenue growth and industry-best 90% gross margins. Their net dollar retention of 135% means existing customers spend 35% more each year.

Those are incredible metrics! But how long can they maintain this growth with Adobe XD and Canva competing?

Day One Trading: Will FIG Stock Pop or Drop?

Recent tech IPO performances provide clues:

• Rubrik: +16% first day, now +42% from IPO
• Reddit: +48% debut, now -12%
• Astera Labs: +72% first day, now +210%

Figma’s float represents just 8% of shares outstanding, creating artificial scarcity. Market makers may facilitate a 15-25% opening pop before settling into a range. The VWAP (volume-weighted average price) during the first hour will indicate institutional accumulation patterns.

Critical watchpoint: If FIG trades below $30.50 in the first 48 hours, it suggests weak hands took profits early.

Lockup Expiration Countdown: When Early Investors Can Sell

The 180-day lockup expires on January 27, 2026. Historical data shows:

• Average SaaS stock declines 8% in the 30 days pre-lockup
• Volume spikes to 3x normal levels at expiration
• Stocks with >20% insider ownership (like Figma) see steeper drops

Smart investors track Form 4 filings before lockup expiration. If executives file to sell >10% of holdings, that’s a major red flag.

Should retail investors sell before the lockup expiry then?

Long-Term Outlook: Can Figma Become the Next Adobe?

Figma’s product expansion strategy mirrors Adobe’s playbook:

1. Adding FigJam (whiteboarding) at $5/user/month
2. Enterprise version with admin controls
3. Figma Config marketplace (5% rev share)

The total addressable market expands from $22B (design tools) to $85B when including adjacent collaboration software. However, Adobe’s 21% market share in creative software demonstrates the challenges of displacement.

3 Hidden Risks Nobody’s Talking About

1. Freemium conversion rates dropped from 5.2% to 4.7% in Q2 2025
2. Apple’s Freeform competes directly with FigJam
3. Developer ecosystem fragmentation (vs. Adobe’s unified CC)

The quiet killer? Microsoft’s Designer now integrates DALL-E 3 AI, something Figma’s AI features can’t yet match.

Wow, I hadn’t considered the Microsoft angle. Do you think FIG’s valuation prices in these risks?