As Alphabet (GOOGL) prepares to release its Q2 earnings, investors face a critical question: Is now the time to buy amid soaring AI ambitions and intensifying competition? The stock’s 5% annual gain masks mounting pressure from OpenAI and Perplexity’s disruptive browsers.

Meanwhile, congressional trading data reveals unusual activity, with 21 GOOG trades by lawmakers in six months. With analysts projecting 11% revenue growth to $93.9B, all eyes are on whether Alphabet’s AI cloud deals can offset search market erosion below 90%—a first since 2015.

Is Alphabet Stock a Buy Before Q2 Earnings? AI Growth vs. Competition and What Congress’ GOOG Trades Say

Will Alphabet Beat Earnings Estimates Like Last Quarter?

Analysts project Alphabet’s Q2 earnings per share at $2.18, up from $1.89 YoY, with revenue expected to grow nearly 11% to $93.91 billion. The company has consistently beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters, but market sentiment appears cautious ahead of this report.

The cloud segment’s performance will be crucial, especially after Alphabet secured OpenAI as a cloud customer—a surprising move given their AI rivalry. However, increasing competition in both search and cloud computing has created uncertainty about whether Alphabet can maintain its growth trajectory.

Where the Smart Money Is Betting

Institutional ownership remains stable at around 65%, but options activity suggests some investors are hedging positions ahead of earnings. Interestingly, Congress members have traded GOOG stock 21 times in the past six months (11 buys vs. 10 sells), indicating split sentiment among informed investors.

How Big a Threat Are AI Browsers Really?

OpenAI and Perplexity’s new browsers represent the most direct challenge to Google’s search dominance yet. Early adoption metrics suggest these AI-native browsers are capturing about 3-5% search market share among tech-savvy users, primarily impacting commercial intent queries where AI answers are most valuable.

Ms.Tomato, look at Chrome’s mobile dominance—70% share isn’t disappearing overnight. But AI browsers will likely commoditize search, pressuring Google’s premium ad pricing.

But Mr.Lettuce, didn’t Google add AI directly to Search this year? Isn’t that defensive enough?

Partial defense at best. The real risk is AI bypassing search entirely—when assistants answer questions without showing search results, that threatens Google’s entire business model.

What Congressional Trading Reveals About GOOG’s Future

Political trading data shows fascinating splits: Representative Cleo Fields made two GOOG trades while other members ranged from aggressive buying to profit-taking. Congressional trades have historically shown modest predictive power—about 60% accuracy for tech stocks—but their increased activity suggests Alphabet remains a battleground stock.

The Biden Admin’s Tech Policy Impact

Increased tech regulation poses risks, but Alphabet’s lobbying expenditures hit record levels this quarter. Their government relations team appears focused on shaping rather than resisting AI legislation—a smarter long-game approach than Big Tech’s traditional adversarial stance.

Is Google Cloud Outpacing AWS and Azure Now?

Cloud revenue growth accelerated to 28% last quarter, closing the gap with Microsoft’s Azure. The OpenAI partnership could demonstrate Google Cloud’s AI infrastructure superiority, potentially stealing enterprise clients from competitors. However, margin compression remains a concern as cloud providers compete aggressively on pricing.

Waymo’s Breakthrough Quarter: Game Changer or Cash Burn?

Alphabet’s autonomous vehicle unit doubled its rider counts in Q2 while reducing losses by 30%. With regulatory approvals accelerating in 10 new markets, Waymo could become a meaningful valuation driver by 2026. The key question is whether Alphabet can achieve profitability before competitors like Tesla’s FSD.

Mr.Lettuce, at what point does Waymo move from “moonshot” to core business?

When it surpasses YouTube’s contribution margins, Tomato—likely 2-3 years out. The tech is ready; scaling and regulation were always the bottlenecks, and both are breaking favorably now.

The Verdict: To Buy or Not Before Earnings?

Alphabet trades at 22x forward earnings—below its 5-year average and significantly discounted versus peers. Technical indicators show strong support at $165, with upside potential to $210 if earnings beat expectations. Risk factors include:

• AI competition accelerating faster than expected
• Search revenue declines outpacing AI monetization
• Cloud margin compression

The safer play may be waiting post-earnings given implied volatility, but long-term investors could start building positions, expecting AI monetization to accelerate in 2026. Congressional trading patterns suggest the stock is fairly valued currently—no extreme bullish or bearish signals from Washington insiders.